ARC INSIGHT
Ask any business broker or investment banker “what is my company worth” and you will get a reply of “some multiple of adjusted EBITDA”. While that is true, the key to that statement is some multiple.
Below is a table of typical eCommerce based 3PL multiples, based on industry data and personal experience, as of Q3 2026.
| Adjusted EBITDA | Typical revenue scale | Typical EBITDA multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Under $500K | Under $5M | 2.5×–4.0× |
| $500K - $3M | $5M - $30M | 3.5×–6.0× |
| $3M - $10M | $30M - $125M | 5.5×–8.5× |
| $10M - $20M | $100M - $200M | 7.0×–10.5× |
| Over $20M | $200M+ | 8.0×–12.0×+ |
The broker will explain that the multiple is mostly dependent on the size of the business, industry and the current market conditions. This only tells a part of the story. As you can see, there are relatively large ranges inside of each of the multiples. The trick to getting to the upper portion of the range is understanding the buying/selling process, and the keys that impact that multiple.
Most buyers are reviewing the adjusted EBITDA as presented, but also building a second, risk-based EBITDA model during negotiations and diligence. They are asking detailed questions like:
- What is the revenue risk?
- How well run are their operations?
- Is there customer concentration?
- Do we actually believe these adjusted EBITDA numbers?
- Is there keyman risk?
- What do their commercial contracts look like?
- What is their network footprint?
- Etc.
The buyer is building the risk profile of the business as a go-forward entity. That risk factor influences the “standard” multiple significantly, and can result in millions of dollars being included or excluded from the offer.
What are some of the major influences?
- Buyer Type - the type of buyer (strategic versus financial) will impact the multiples they are willing to pay. Strategic buyers may be willing to offer a higher multiple, as there are economies of scale they will recognize that a financial buyer may not. Parcel volumes and contracts, network location, fullness and optimization (including build versus buy decisions), sub-market leases, and the ability to penetrate vertical markets they may have previously avoided.
- Concentrated Profit Centers - understanding and uncovering where the business makes money is critical. Where does the profit come from? Is all of the profit found in a single revenue stream (e.g. parcel, VAS, storage)? Concentrated profit centers, especially in areas outside the “4-walls” of the organization, carry heightened risk to the buyer. What if consumer buying patterns change? What if government regulation suddenly adjusts (e.g. tariffs)? What if my parcel carrier files Chapter 11?
- Customer Risk - All businesses carry customer risk. However, in the world of eCommerce, this risk is heightened. Are key customers established brands or an overnight TikTok success? Do customers have consistent volume, or are they cyclical or seasonal? How concentrated is the overall revenue?
- Operational Maturity - 3PLs are a service business, requiring high levels of coordination and organization. With service and delivery windows continuing to shrink, 3PLs are now required to have an increased level of operational maturity to meet customer demands. A top tier WMS, extensive internal and external dashboards, AI integration, and multi-carrier capabilities are now table stakes to compete.
Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of your business - from the buy-side perspective - is crucial to maximizing value. There are critical things you can prepare before going to market that will have significant influence on the final multiple, and therefore final sale price of your business.
Unprepared businesses will go to market at a fraction of their actual value or have their valuation slashed during diligence. Be prepared and answer the question before it is asked.